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© Alexander Wollert / Daniela Domeisen

Heat wave or cold air outbreak? — On the predictability of our weather on weekly to monthly timescales

Prof Daniela Domeisen  |  Professor for Atmospheric Predictability   |  Department of Environmental Systems Sciences   |  ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract: The prediction of our weather is notoriously difficult beyond timescales of one to two weeks. Longer-term predictions are however able to indicate tendencies in temperature or precipitation for weeks to months ahead. In particular, there is significant interest in forecasting extreme events such as heat waves and cold air outbreaks that can lead to significant damage to ecosystems and infrastructure, as well as human health. This presentation explores our current ability to make longer-term predictions as well as the challenges ahead, in particular with respect to remote effects on our weather that may be possible to utilize for improving long-term weather forecasts.